The Case for Doing Nothing

Weekly Edition: July 8th, 2026

July 08, 2026

Market Movements

Current Level

Weekly Return

YTD

S&P 500

7,503.85

0.334%

9.62%

NASDAQ

25,818.69

-0.848%

11.09%

Dow Jones

52,925.15

1.329%

10.12%

VIX

16.13

-5.728%

7.89%

Russell 2000

2,982.49

-1.193%

19.27%

*Weekly Return is calculated as market open of the previous Wednesday, to market close this Tuesday (yesterday); Current Level is Tuesday’s (yesterday’s) close.

Weekly Watch

  • Geopolitics & Energy: Iran’s attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. revoking Iran’s oil license pushed oil up. Heightened tensions are adding fuel to volatility. Same old Iran stuff.

  • Sector Rotation: Small caps still showing strength, while Financials and Healthcare hit fresh all-time highs. I’m watching whether this rotation has staying power or if overbought conditions (especially in banks) lead to healthy pullbacks.

  • Semiconductors & Memory: The memory trade has flipped into a bear market, with ~$1.5T in market value erased since late June. Sharp drops in Micron and related names may offer discounted entries for selling puts on quality chip stocks once volatility settles.

  • Summer Volatility: Quiet summer trading can flip fast on headlines. These spikes (whether from trade news, geopolitics, or earnings digestion) can deliver some of the best premium collection setups.

Thought Throttle

I’m running on fumes this week, so we’re keeping this one short and sweet.

Most new investors believe more trades = more returns.

Ironically, one of the highest-return decisions is often not trading at all.

We feel the itch. Markets are open. Cash is sitting there. “Do something.”

This is how we force a mediocre setup.

Reality check—every trade carries risk. If the premium, liquidity, or setup isn’t right, our expected return can actually be negative compared to literally just not trading.

One bad trade can wreck months of progress.

Losses are more mathematically punishing.

Take a 25% loss, and we now need a 33% gain just to get back to even.

One sloppy trade can erase the compounding from a couple of weeks.

Cash is a position.

Waiting can lead to better entries, higher premiums, a lower cost basis, and a greater margin of safety.

Patience isn’t lost income. It is the ability to do something else until higher-quality opportunities arise.

Stay disciplined. Protect the compounding.

I promise I’ll be back next week with more energy.

Until then, trade (or don’t trade) like the market owes you nothing.

Quote(s) I Like

"There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders."

— Wall Street proverb

"You don't get paid for being busy. You get paid for being right."

— Howard Marks

Trade Mechanics

Check out this opportunity for a cash-secured put in State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

The strike below represents a ~30-delta put expiring August 21, 2026.

S&P 500 ETF

SPY

Current Price (July 7, 2026)

$747.71

Put Sold

Aug. 21 $730 Put (~30 Delta)

Mid-Premium

$7.85

Capital At-Risk

$72,215

Return if Not Assigned

$785 ÷ $72,215 = 1.09%

Annualized Return

≈ 9.17%

Cost Basis if Assigned

$722.15 (3.42% discount)

If we wanted to buy SPY at a discount, we could sell the $730 August 21 Put for about $7.85 in premium. With shares trading near $747.71, that represents roughly a 1.09% return on capital at risk over the next 45 days. If assigned, we'd purchase shares at an effective cost basis of $722.15—a 3.42% discount from today's price.

If SPY remains above $730 through expiration, the option expires worthless and the premium is kept as income. If the ETF falls below the strike, assignment results in purchasing shares at an effective cost basis of $722.15.

This is for educational purposes only—not a trade recommendation. Remember to always do your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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Options come with inherent risks. We strongly advise you to consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions, including determining whether any proposed investment aligns with your personal financial needs.